Leap2020
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LEAP (Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique, English: European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) is a think tank established to analyse and anticipate global economic developments from a European perspective and to publish a paid-subscription monthly economic forecast bulletin. It was founded in 1997 under the title "Europe2020" by Marie-Helene Caillol (the current president of LEAP since its founding) and Franck Biancheri, the founder of the European student network AEGEE (Association des États Generaux de l'Europe) and one of the few pan-European parties, Newropeans and relaunched as LEAP in 2005. LEAP claims to be the first European website of anticipation, independent from any government or lobby.
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In 2006,[1] LEAP examined the possibility of a great depression similar to the breakdown of the stock markets in 1929, which is labelled "Global Systemic Crisis".[2] Subscriptions for its monthly Global European Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB) cost 220 euros per year. This bulletin contains several anticipations, always signed by the LEAP research team,[3] often six to twelve months ahead. They are publishing each month a public summary of their anticipations[4] so it is very easy to observe their high success in anticipating major events in the Global Systemic Crisis. They are following a fully transparent and rigorous method they have created and described in the Manual of Political Anticipation.[5][6] They are not always right: anticipations included a Euro/USD exchange rate of 1.75 by the end of the year 2008 and the inevitable default of the United States government on its treasury obligations by the summer of 2009. But they have announced the September 2008 financial breakdown[7] and 2011 revolutions in Maghreb[8] with high precision, among others.